NBA Draft Lottery: Odds, Tiebreakers, Key Dates

The beginning stages of the 2021 NBA Draft are underway, starting with the annual lottery, slated for June 22.

This marks the third straight year of the new lottery system with weighted odds — as each of the bottom three teams has an equal chance to win the No. 1 overall pick.

Six teams finished the regular season with identical records, leading the league to determine tiebreakers via random drawings on May 25.

NBA Lottery
USA TODAY Sports
  • The Thunder (22-50) won a tiebreaker with the Cavaliers.
  • The Bulls (31-41) won a tiebreaker with the Pelicans and Kings. Second and third place in the tiebreaker drawings went to Sacramento and New Orleans, respectively.
  • The Hornets (33-39) won a tiebreaker with the Spurs.

Below are the complete lottery odds:

Team Record Top 4 No. 1 Pick
1 Houston Rockets 17-55 52.1% 14.0%
2 Detroit Pistons 20-52 52.1% 14.0%
3 Orlando Magic 21-51 52.1% 14.0%
4 Oklahoma City Thunder 22-50 45.1% 11.5%
5 Cleveland Cavaliers 22-50 45.1% 11.5%
6 Minnesota Timberwolves → Golden State Warriors* 23-49 37.2% 9.0%
7 Toronto Raptors 27-45 31.9% 7.5%
8 Chicago Bulls → Orlando Magic* 31-41 20.3% 6.0%
9 Sacramento Kings 31-41 20.3% 4.5%
10 New Orleans Pelicans 31-41 20.3% 4.5%
11 Charlotte Hornets 33-39 8.5% 4.5%
12 San Antonio Spurs 33-39 8.0% 1.8%
13 Indiana Pacers 34-38 4.8% 1.7%
14 Golden State Warriors 39-33 2.4% 0.5%
  • Minnesota’s pick owed to Golden State is top-three protected
  • Chicago’s pick owed to Orlando is top-four protected

NBA Key Dates

  • May 30: Deadline for an early entry player to apply for this year’s Draft (11:59 p.m. ET)
  • June 21-27: NBA Draft Combine
  • July 19: Deadline for an early entry player to withdraw from the NBA Draft (5:00 p.m. ET)
  • July 29: 2021 NBA Draft
  • Aug 8-17: MGM Resorts NBA Summer League 2021 (Las Vegas)

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2 COMMENTS

  1. The Cavs have a 45% chance at the #1 pick? I’ll take that. The math seems impossible, but I’ll still believe it.

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