NBA Predictions: Where each team lands in final standings

The NBA trade deadline is in the books. The buyout market will add a wrinkle or two, but for the most part, the picture is set.

The All-Star break is next. After that, it is a straight shot to April, and the standings matter again in a real way. Outside the very top of each conference, nothing feels settled. Schedules, health, incentives, and motivation are about to do a lot of talking.

So let’s take a swing at where this lands, with roughly two months to go.

West Playoff Teams

1. Oklahoma City Thunder
2. San Antonio Spurs
3. Denver Nuggets
4. Minnesota Timberwolves
5. Houston Rockets
6. Los Angeles Lakers

Oklahoma City has built real separation, and San Antonio has done the same behind them. Those two spots feel stable.

After that, it gets messy.

Denver probably should not land third on paper. They have the hardest remaining schedule, Aaron Gordon is out until at least mid-March, and they have been ordinary without him. And yet, they still have Nikola Jokic. History says that matters more than spreadsheets.

Houston has the easiest schedule, but also the worst habit of losing games it should win. The removal of the Steven Adams–offensive rebounding safety net makes trusting them tricky.

Minnesota’s schedule is brutal, and they have not feasted on good teams. Still, the Ayo Dosunmu addition fits, and Anthony Edwards has been nails in the clutch. That usually buys you wins late.

West Play-In Teams

7. Phoenix Suns
8. Golden State Warriors
9. Portland Trail Blazers
10. Los Angeles Clippers

Phoenix is tied in the loss column with Minnesota and is lurking. The problem is the schedule. Two more games against Oklahoma City, San Antonio, and Boston, plus Denver and Houston. That is not gentle.

The Suns do have a head-to-head edge over the Lakers, with one meeting left. If they win it on Feb. 26, the math changes. Until then, the Lakers have a chance to widen the gap and grab tiebreakers elsewhere.

The Clippers stick because they have to. They do not control their 2026 first-round pick. Darius Garland should be back, and even post-deadline, this is still a talented roster with motivation.

West Lottery Teams

11. Memphis Grizzlies
12. Dallas Mavericks
13. New Orleans Pelicans
14. Utah Jazz
15. Sacramento Kings

Sacramento has separation at the bottom. Utah is already running fourth-quarter concessions. New Orleans is the outlier, as the Pelicans have no incentive to lose without control of their pick.

That likely puts Utah below them. Memphis and Dallas have too much distance to close.

East Playoff Teams

1. Detroit Pistons
2. Cleveland Cavaliers
3. New York Knicks
4. Boston Celtics
5. Philadelphia 76ers
6. Orlando Magic

Detroit is clear. After that, chaos.

Cleveland has the softest remaining slate against tanking teams and and has looked fanatstic closing in the three games with James Harden. They were already trending up. I like them jumping Boston and New York for second.

Boston has been steady. The Knicks have been better lately, assuming Jose Alvarado can help hold things together after losing Miles McBride. And at some point, Karl-Anthony Towns has to make threes again.

Philadelphia’s tiebreaker edge matters. Paul George being out another 18 games hurts, but they have survived worse. We can all believe in Tyrese Maxey by now.

Finally, with Toronto’s schedule and Orlando’s tank-heavy run-in, I’ll take the Magic sneaking into sixth.

East Play-In Teams

7. Toronto Raptors
8. Charlotte Hornets
9. Miami Heat
10. Atlanta Hawks

Charlotte is the best story going. Nine wins in 10 games. A lineup that works. They are too far back to catch Orlando, but Miami is very reachable, and that matters in the play-in format.

East Lottery Teams

11. Chicago Bulls
12. Milwaukee Bucks
13. Brooklyn Nets
14. Washington Wizards
15. Indiana Pacers

Chicago is right there for the play-in but feels caught between timelines. Milwaukee’s motivation is different. They want a lottery asset badly enough to try to keep Giannis Antetokounmpo engaged long-term.

Washington has Anthony Davis and Trae Young on paper, but do not expect to see much of them. That pick protection dictates everything.

Indiana already has a two-loss cushion for the bottom spot. In a draft like this, that head start matters.