NBA expected to approve ‘3-2-1’ lottery reform plan

The NBA appears ready to move forward with major lottery changes.

Despite pushback from some corners, the league’s Board of Governors is expected to approve the proposed “3-2-1” lottery reform plan later this month, according to Sam Amick and Mike Vorkunov of The Athletic.

That doesn’t mean everyone is on board.

Several executives told The Athletic the plan feels like an overreaction, driven in part by the hype surrounding this year’s draft class. The biggest concern is simple. If the incentive to tank disappears, the worst teams may just stay bad longer.

“Teams that aren’t trying to tank will then get penalized,” one front office staffer said.

The proposed system would expand the lottery to 16 teams and flatten the odds significantly. The three worst teams would actually receive fewer ping-pong balls due to a “relegation tier,” giving them the same odds at the No. 1 pick as play-in level teams.

The top odds would drop from 14% to 8.1%, and the entire structure would spread out value across the top 16 picks. Some around the league believe that could create unintended consequences, including making draft picks harder to acquire in trades and limiting flexibility for rebuilding teams.

Still, resistance appears limited.

According to Amick and Vorkunov, there has been minimal pushback in league meetings, with many executives resigned to the idea that the change is coming.

“They’re hellbent on doing this,” one assistant GM said.

At least 23 owners must approve the plan. All signs point to that happening.

There are still details being finalized, including how far top teams could fall and how penalties for tanking will be enforced. Commissioner Adam Silver is expected to have expanded authority to adjust lottery odds or draft positions in cases of obvious violations.

If approved, the new system would take effect with next year’s draft.

One more twist may be coming as well: The actual lottery drawing could be televised live.