Pacers not expected to use MLE, but bigger questions loom

The Pacers are projected to stand pat this offseason — and that might be the right call, even if it’s not the exciting one.

Indiana sits narrowly below the luxury tax line of $201 million in 2026-27, which gives them access to the $15.1 million midlevel exception. Don’t expect them to use it.

“Indiana’s historic aversion to paying the luxury tax makes it hard to imagine it would spend assets to clear space and then use the MLE to climb back above the tax while also hard-capping itself at the first apron,” Bleacher Report’s Grant Hughes wrote.

That tracks. The Pacers have nine players eligible for extensions and an unrestricted free agent class that isn’t particularly deep. Barring something wild — like LeBron James somehow ending up in Indiana — this roster looks a lot like last year’s version.

Which isn’t necessarily bad news, assuming everyone is healthy.

Without Tyrese Haliburton, the Pacers won just 19 games. That’s how much he matters. Pascal Siakam held things together as best he could, averaging 24.0 points, 6.6 rebounds and 3.8 assists while making his fourth All-Star team. But this team goes as Haliburton goes.

When healthy, Haliburton is a problem. He averaged 18.6 points, 9.2 assists and 1.4 steals last season, made All-NBA Third Team and led Indiana to the 2025 Finals. The Thunder beat the Pacers in seven games, and Haliburton tore his Achilles in Game 7. Brutal ending to a remarkable run.

Now the Pacers have to figure out extensions. Indiana can sign Siakam to a $207 million deal starting July 6 and Haliburton to a two-year, $121 million extension. Both decisions matter enormously.

So does the Ivica Zubac situation — and not in a good way.

The Zubac trade cost Indiana dearly. The Pacers needed a top-four lottery finish to keep their 2026 first-round pick. They landed fifth, thanks to Washington moving up, and the pick went to the Clippers. That means no shot at AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson, Cameron Boozer or Caleb Wilson.

Instead, Indiana is betting that Zubac becomes a cornerstone next to Siakam and a healthy Haliburton. That’s a lot of pressure on a guy who has never been asked to do that much.

The Pacers are a contender when healthy. We just haven’t seen them healthy in a while.