NBA Preview: Kawhi Leonard returns to give Raptors a real shot

The Raptors already know what can happen when they gamble on Kawhi Leonard. They’re doing it again.

Toronto completed its long-awaited trade for the two-time Finals MVP, sending Brandon Ingram, Gradey Dick, two unprotected first-round picks, a first-round swap and two second-rounders to the Clippers.

That’s a serious price for a 35-year-old with a lengthy injury history. It’s also the type of move teams make when they’re tired of being merely respectable.

The Raptors won 46 games last season. Now they’re trying to win something that matters.

What changed

Leonard’s return was delayed while the NBA completed its investigation into allegations of salary-cap circumvention involving the Clippers. Once the league fined Leonard $700,000 and issued no suspension, Toronto was free to complete the deal.

The trade gives the Raptors the high-level halfcourt scorer they lacked during last season’s seven-game first-round loss to the Cavaliers. It also allowed them to move on from Ingram, who disappeared during the playoffs and is owed nearly $82 million over the next two seasons.

In that sense, Toronto accomplished two things at once. It added a proven postseason star and escaped a contract that already looked like a mistake.

Kyle Anderson and Andre Jackson Jr. joined the supporting cast, while Jamal Shead was retained. Sandro Mamukelashvili departed in free agency, weakening a bench that will need to hold up during the inevitable nights Leonard doesn’t play.

The Raptors are deeper, more versatile and considerably more dangerous. They are also operating on Leonard’s clock now.

The biggest question

How good can Scottie Barnes become? Leonard will receive the attention, but Barnes remains the player most likely to determine Toronto’s long-term ceiling.

He took a major step last season, improving his efficiency, earning his first All-Defensive Team selection and delivering a dominant series against Cleveland. Barnes averaged 24.1 points, 8.6 assists, 6.1 rebounds, 1.7 blocks and 1.1 steals in the seven-game defeat.

That wasn’t simply a good series. According to ESPN, only LeBron James, Nikola Jokic and Cade Cunningham have matched that level of all-around playoff production over the past decade.

Leonard’s arrival should make Barnes’ life easier. Toronto no longer needs him to create every important basket late in games, and Leonard’s shooting provides additional space for Barnes to attack.

This should remain Barnes’ team, even with one of the greatest players in franchise history returning to it. If he takes another leap, the Raptors become much more than a nostalgic story.

The X-factor

Collin Murray-Boyles averaged only 8.5 points as a rookie. His impact this season could go well beyond scoring.

The second-year forward gives Toronto the possibility of closing games with a Leonard-Barnes-Murray-Boyles frontcourt. That is a long, strong and switchable defensive group capable of creating problems for nearly anyone in the East.

Murray-Boyles must prove he can function as a small-ball center when the Raptors need more mobility than Jakob Poeltl provides. If he can defend bigger players, rebound and avoid becoming an offensive liability, coach Darko Rajakovic will have options most teams don’t.

Leonard and Barnes already give Toronto two elite defensive pieces. Murray-Boyles could turn them into an identity.

The outlook

ESPN’s Basketball Power Index ranks the Raptors 14th, which feels cautious for a team that won 46 games before adding Leonard.

Then again, every Toronto projection comes with the same unavoidable disclaimer. Namely, Leonard has to play.

When healthy, he remains an efficient scorer, disruptive defender and proven playoff closer. He attempted a career-high 6.8 3-pointers per game last season and made 39 percent of them, giving the Raptors another weapon for an offense that occasionally stalled when games slowed down.

The price of acquiring him was substantial. The window may be short. Neither consideration should have stopped Toronto from trying.

The Raptors weren’t bad enough to rebuild and weren’t good enough to contend. Leonard gives them a chance to escape the middle.

It worked once before. Toronto has decided that’s reason enough to try again.