Cavs’ numbers raise more questions about James Harden’s fit

The Cavs brought in James Harden to make life easier for Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley. Through the opening stretch of this season, the numbers suggest those partnerships need work.

Quite a bit of it, actually.

Danny Cunningham of Locked On Cavs highlighted several lineup splits Tuesday that help explain why the Cavs are having such a difficult time finding themselves.

“The Cavs have several issues right now, but I don’t think anything is more damning than these numbers,” Cunningham wrote.

Start with Harden and Mitchell. In the data Cunningham shared, which filters out low-leverage possessions, the Cavs scored 111.5 points per 100 possessions and allowed 114.2 with both guards playing. That covered 183 minutes.

With Mitchell playing and Harden sitting, the offense jumped to 129.2 points per 100 possessions, while the defense allowed 108.1 over 131 minutes.

The Harden-Mobley combination offered another concerning comparison. The Cavs were outscored by 6.4 points per 100 possessions in their 246 minutes together. With Mobley playing without Harden, they outscored opponents by 27.8 per 100 possessions, though that sample covered just 54 minutes.

Nobody should use 54 minutes to settle a personnel decision. Different opponents, teammates and shooting stretches influence these results. The Cavs also shot considerably better from three in the Mitchell-without-Harden minutes.

But these are substantial differences, and they deserve attention.

As we outlined after Monday’s loss to the shorthanded Hornets, the Cavs’ problems extend to rebounding, defensive execution and readiness. Harden doesn’t own all of that. Mitchell and Mobley have had disappointing nights themselves.

Still, the Cavs need their established players to complement one another. That was the idea behind keeping this group together after reaching the Eastern Conference finals.

The debate over coaching versus roster construction will continue. Kenny Atkinson has to find combinations that work, and Harden has to give him more reason to trust the ones built around him.

At 5-6, the Cavs don’t need to decide their entire future. They do need to get considerably more from the players who are supposed to determine it.

More Cavs:

• Talkin’ Cavs: James Harden, Peyton Watson, Kenny Atkinson, rebounding …
• Cavs’ struggles go beyond coaching, NBA analyst argues
• Dribbles: Same old issues cost Cavs mightily against shorthanded Hornets