Jay Bilas insists, no, transfer portal isn't negatively impacting March Madness

The lack of upsets during the first weekend of the 2025 NCAA Tournament has been a significant talking point, with some expressing disappointment over the perceived lack of excitement. However, ESPN college basketball analyst Jay Bilas believes the absence of chaos is more of an anomaly than a troubling trend. Jay Bilas, NCAA tournament, college basketball

Prominent figures like Stephen A. Smith and Scott Van Pelt have discussed how the rise of NIL (Name, Image, Likeness) and the transfer portal may have contributed to the struggles of mid-major teams in this year’s tournament. Smith, in particular, warned that the absence of Cinderella stories could lead to “the death of college basketball” if the trend continues.

During an appearance on Beat The Closing Number, a sports betting podcast affiliated with TheLines.com, Bilas addressed the growing concern, arguing that there is not enough evidence to suggest that the transfer portal is negatively affecting the tournament.

“I don’t think it’s necessarily dominance. I think it’s one year,” Bilas said, via Awful Announcing. “We’ve had years like this before where we didn’t have as much chaos in the first and second rounds as we’ve had in other years. It’s a year-to-year thing. I think what people tend to forget, in my view, it’s a facile interpretation. We didn’t get as many upsets as fans tend to like. Therefore, it’s the fault of NIL and the portal. It’s just not true.”

Bilas went on to explain that the transfer portal spreads talent across different teams rather than concentrating it in a few. He pointed to the example of the Sweet 16, which consists entirely of teams from four conferences, but noted that the composition of those teams has shifted over the years.

“One, the NIL and the portal spreads talent out. It doesn’t concentrate it,” Bilas said. “You have had a lot of people say, and it’s a fact, that all 16 teams (in the Sweet 16) came from four conferences. But what they aren’t talking about is the school’s portal. Two years ago, Houston was in the American Athletic Conference. BYU was in the West Coast Conference. And Arizona was in the Pac-12. With the same field two years ago, we would have had seven different conferences. Would that make people feel better?”

Bilas argued that the issue lies not with the NIL or the portal, but with the decisions of schools to leave conferences in search of better opportunities.

“We classified BYU as a mid-major two years ago. We classified Houston, frankly, as a mid-major because they played in the American. They are the same teams. Out of the American, Houston went to the Final Four. It’s the same program, same team,” he said. “If having seven different conferences would make people feel better, that’s not the portal or NIL, that’s the schools choosing to bolt where they have been, not wanting to go through adversity, and the same things we say about players.”

Bilas also pointed to several mid-major teams that had success in the tournament, including Drake, Colorado State, New Mexico, McNeese State, Gonzaga, and St. Mary’s. He emphasized that Colorado State’s near-upset of Maryland, which was decided by a buzzer-beater, was merely “happenstance” and not the result of the NIL or portal.

“One data point does not make a trend. This is one year,” Bilas said. “So what I would say is let’s pump the brakes on this sky-is-falling, the tournament is never going to be the same, type of business.”

Bilas, a strong advocate for player movement via the transfer portal, also criticized the hypocrisy in the negative discourse surrounding it. He pointed out that coaches routinely leave their positions for better opportunities, yet this is rarely criticized in the same way.

“I think you have seen in the last couple of days, and I don’t have a problem with it, it’s the way the world works, the coach’s portal is always open,” Bilas said. “Nobody calls that tampering, or poaching, or has a problem with the coaches and their commitment. Are they willing to go through adversity? Do they show loyalty?

Those coaches, Darian DeVries, Ben McCollum, you name it, there is a whole bunch of them. They were negotiating their out when the tournament was going on. So the players shouldn’t be put in a separate category in my view.”