NBA history strongly favors teams that reach 40 wins before 20 losses

There are analytics models. There are betting markets. And then there’s Phil Jackson.

As Scott Phillips of The Athletic outlined, Jackson’s old “40 before 20” benchmark continues to hold real weight in NBA history. The rule is simple: If a team reaches 40 wins before it suffers 20 losses, it’s usually playing championship-level basketball.

History backs it up.

According to research cited by The Athletic’s Law Murray, 18 of the last 19 NBA champions hit that mark. Since the 3-point line was introduced in 1979, only four teams have won a title without qualifying as a 40-before-20 club. That’s not coincidence. That’s pattern.

This season, three teams made the cut. That would be the defending champion Thunder, the surging Spurs, and the East-leading Pistons. The Celtics fell out of contention at 38–20 after a recent loss.

That doesn’t mean someone else can’t win it all. The Nuggets, Cavaliers, and Celtics remain firmly in the mix. But if history tells us anything, the path likely runs through one of the three that already cleared the bar.

The next layer? Staying under 30 losses. Very few champions cross that line.

It’s not destiny. It’s trend. And in late February, trends start to matter.