Around the league, there’s a growing belief that 2026 is when the Giannis Antetokounmpo situation in Milwaukee finally reaches a crossroads.
Several executives who spoke with ESPN’s Brian Windhorst and Tim Bontemps told Bontemps they expect the Bucks’ long-running balancing act to hit an inflection point next year.
“The rubber is going to finally hit the road, one way or the other,” one Western Conference executive said.
That said, most of those conversations pointed toward patience. Multiple league sources believe any real resolution is more likely to come in the offseason, when Antetokounmpo would hold maximum leverage.
“They aren’t trading him in-season,” one Western Conference scout predicted.
Quiet Deadline, Loud Summer
If that thinking holds, February could be calmer than expected.
Executives surveyed by Bontemps said they anticipate a relatively quiet trade deadline, with major decisions involving players such as Anthony Davis, Zach LaVine, and Trae Young potentially pushed into June or July.
One Eastern Conference executive suggested that a slow deadline could set the stage for a “crazy summer.”
“All these guys are going to be stuck where they are,” a Western Conference exec said. “I don’t think it will be as busy as people think.”
LeBron’s Next Chapter
Windhorst also reported that league insiders see three realistic paths for LeBron James after this season. Re-signing with the Lakers at a reduced salary, joining another team in free agency, or retirement.
What executives do not expect is another maximum or near-maximum deal from Los Angeles.
Even so, James would still draw interest if he chooses to keep playing.
“LeBron is still averaging 20 points and shooting 50 percent,” one head coach told ESPN. “You just have to find the right situation.”
Tanking Concerns Growing
Finally, the league’s discomfort with tanking continues to build.
According to Windhorst, the NBA is weighing potential rule changes to further discourage losing by design, and executives expect the issue to grow louder as the season goes on.
“This is only going to get louder,” one Eastern Conference executive said. “By the spring, I think one out of every three games we’re going to play is going to be against a team that’s tanking.”
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Although LeBron was innovative in his approach (maybe others before him) to holding a team somewhere between “accountable” and “hostage” with his one year at a time decision making.. pushing his team to make moves to compete every year.. and go all in every year.. often sacrificing the future..
,, I don’t know if it’s been proven as the best strategy to winning chips. The superstar not committing long term.. and the team selling future for now out of an effort to hold on to said superstar.. rather than setting said superstar up for an even bigger future by taking a longer term approach..
I think it was proven the best strategy to making money, staying ahead of the next CBA.
In another universe, LeBron is more patient. Cavs have kept Wiggins. Cavs draft an entire team around LeBron because they have time to do so. Like Spurs legends, LeBron commits to staying. Cavs go young around him.. Build through the draft. And by the time he’s 40 he’d have the ultimate roster built around him, and at least a handful of rings to show for it.
Giannis followed LeBron’s strategy why? For money? Or because he thinks it’s about winning?
That’s what I’m not clear about. He seems to talk a lot about wanting to win so bad.. how competitive things need to be.. And media spin is that he’s semi threatening to leave if they don’t do something. Will be interesting to see how it all turns out,