Spurs remain favorites in Southwest, but Rockets offer betting value

What a difference a year makes.

Last season, the San Antonio Spurs weren’t even favored to win the Southwest Division, let alone make a run to the NBA Finals, where they lost in five games to the New York Knicks.

Entering this season, the Spurs are the second favorites behind the Oklahoma City Thunder to win the NBA championship and the prohibitive favorites over the Houston Rockets to win their second straight division title.

The defending Western Conference champions are expected to be even better this season with the addition of free agent forward Tobias Harris. More importantly, their young core, led by Victor Wembanyama, should continue to improve.

The only likely threat to the Spurs repeating as division champions is the Houston Rockets, who will be boosted by the return of point guard Fred VanVleet and center Steven Adams.

VanVleet missed the entire season last year, and that hole at point guard really hurt the Rockets’ offense. Adams played in only 32 games after suffering a season-ending ankle injury in January. In just 22.8 minutes per game, he averaged 8.6 rebounds, including an impressive 4.5 offensive rebounds.

The oddsmakers aren’t giving the Rockets much of a chance to even compete for the division title, with odds of +700 at DraftKings and Caesars.

It’s reasonable to pick the Spurs to win, but to think the Rockets are a major long shot is another story.

I also think there’s one variable that makes this a value play: Wembanyama’s inability to stay on the court for an entire season.

Over his first three seasons, Wemby has missed a total of 65 games. And whenever there has been an injury or health issue, the Spurs have been very conservative with his recovery time and the minutes he plays when he returns.

Andy Roth has covered the NBA for various outlets since 1979. Follow him @arhooptalk. Read all his Hoops Wire articles here.