The NBA trade market may be shifting, and future first-round picks could become harder to pry loose.
According to Jake Fischer of The Stein Line, teams are increasingly hesitant to move draft capital as the NBA moves closer to implementing its new lottery system. Front offices want a clearer picture of how it all works before making big commitments.
The proposed “3-2-1” lottery format is expected to go to a Board of Governors vote on May 28 and is widely viewed as likely to pass.
If approved, teams finishing fourth through 10th would each receive an equal 8.1 percent chance at the No. 1 overall pick. The lottery itself would expand to 16 teams.
That is a meaningful shift. More than half the league would have a legitimate shot at landing a franchise-changing player, and that reality is already impacting how teams value their picks.
Executives who once dealt future firsts more freely are now thinking twice.
The expected trade sweepstakes for Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo could serve as a real-time example. Teams preparing potential offers must now weigh how much draft capital they are willing to part with under a system that flattens the odds and increases uncertainty.
Recent history is not helping the appetite to deal, either. Fischer pointed to the Pacers, who lost a top-four protected first-round pick to the Clippers after landing at No. 5 in this year’s lottery. That pick had been included in the February deal involving Ivica Zubac.
It is the type of outcome that gets attention across front offices.
The Stepien rule already limits how many picks teams can trade. Now, some may choose to be even more cautious on their own, wary of giving up a selection that could carry more value than ever under the new system.
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