Is this Cavs’ last ride with current core? Not so fast

Fred Katz of The Athletic made a compelling case this week that this could be the final year for the Cavaliers’ core of Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, pointing to the financial storm clouds gathering under the NBA’s new collective bargaining agreement.

The Cavs are currently nearly $40 million over the luxury tax line and are projected to be the only team above the second apron heading into 2025–26. That’s rare territory, especially for a team that hasn’t reached the conference finals yet.

Katz compared Cleveland’s situation to Boston’s. After years of operating above the second apron, the Celtics effectively had to reset their roster following Jayson Tatum’s Achilles injury, moving key pieces to bring payroll back under control.

Katz is right to point out that the new labor rules are much less forgiving than the old ones. The second apron isn’t just a higher tax tier.

It comes with real roster-building restrictions such as no mid-level exceptions, no aggregating salaries in trades, no sign-and-trades for incoming players, and limits on cash transactions.

If you’re operating above it, you’d better have a legitimate title window.

The Cavs’ playoff exits to date don’t quite check that box. The 2025 postseason ended in the second round, with injuries and an inspired Pacers team playing their part, but also some clear internal shortcomings.

Late-game execution faltered. The offense, elite during the regular season, bottomed out. Cleveland shot just 29 percent from three during the five-game loss to Indiana. Depth was exposed.

Katz’s point is that you can only keep an expensive core together for so long if the results don’t match the investment.

That said, calling this “the last ride” still feels premature. Dan Gilbert has never been shy about spending, especially when the team is winning. And the Cavs don’t have any “dead money” or albatross contracts on their books, just a lot of good players earning what they’re worth.

So there are ways to get creative. They can move smaller deals on the margins, stagger extensions to buy time under the apron, or benefit from the league-wide adjustment to the new CBA as front offices grow more sophisticated with their cap maneuvering.

And of course, winning cures a lot. If Cleveland finally breaks through to the conference finals or beyond, ownership has shown it will spend to sustain success.

Katz’s concerns are valid. This is a crucial season, and the new financial landscape is real.

But it’s not quite “last dance” territory. The Cavs have both the motivation and ownership backing to keep this group together if the results warrant it.

This is less about an automatic teardown and more about what happens if they fall short again. Or if they don’t.