NBA execs think lottery change could make league more competitive than ever

The NBA spent years trying to discourage tanking. This season, it may finally find out whether it succeeded.

With the league’s new “3-2-1” draft lottery system taking effect in 2026-27, executives believe the changes could produce a significantly more competitive regular season, according to Mike Vorkunov of The Athletic.

Under the new format, the NBA’s three worst teams will have just a 3% chance apiece of landing the No. 1 pick. The fourth-worst team gets 2%, while every other lottery team gets 1%.

In other words, being terrible isn’t nearly as rewarding as it used to be.

“I think it’ll be the most competitive league we’ve seen, maybe ever,” Timberwolves president Tim Connelly told Vorkunov. “From top to bottom, there’s no one who is incentivized to lose, which is great for the NBA.”

There is some evidence the league needed to do something. As Vorkunov noted, five of the 20 best net ratings in NBA history have come during the past three seasons, while each of those seasons established a new record for games decided by at least 25 points.

Thunder executive VP Sam Presti believes that could change dramatically.

“We think that we’re going to see net ratings and records that are more similar to the (1980s),” Presti said, predicting that the bottom of the league will be “significantly stronger.”

Of course, we’ll find out how committed everyone is to winning when March rolls around and somebody is 23-47.

But the NBA has removed much of the reward for losing. That seems like a pretty good place to start.