NBA Over/Unders: Will Wizards even sniff 21.5 wins?

September 24, 2025

Bilal Coulibaly, Wizards, NBA — File photo

Las Vegas has the Wizards pegged at 21.5 wins, which sounds low — until you remember how bad they were last season.

Washington managed just 18 victories, and even that number overstated things. Their minus-12.4 scoring margin wasn’t just the worst in the league, it was the third-worst in NBA history, as written by John Hollinger of The Athletic.

And the outlook hasn’t exactly improved. By most measures, their three most effective players last season were Jonas Valanciunas, Jordan Poole and Malcolm Brogdon. All three are gone.

What’s left? A couple of veterans in CJ McCollum and Khris Middleton who could serve as stabilizers … except both are on expiring contracts and are far more valuable to contenders than to a team in the middle of a teardown. Expect buyouts or deadline trades long before April.

Which brings us to the kids. Cam Whitmore, Alex Sarr, Tre Johnson, Bilal Coulibaly and Bub Carrington will get plenty of minutes, but none are ready to lead an NBA team yet.

That means Washington is staring down another long season, with development and lottery odds as the only real goals.

Could they surprise and push past 21.5 wins? Sure, anything’s possible. But given the roster makeup and the likelihood of more veteran exits, even that modest number feels optimistic. Another year, another long winter in D.C.