NBA Insider: Heat, Pacers headed for disappointment

The Eastern Conference has spent years playing second fiddle to the West. That may be changing, and not everyone is going to enjoy the results.

In fact, two teams with legitimate playoff expectations could find themselves fighting just to get into the postseason.

That’s the outlook from longtime NBA insider John Hollinger, who offered his Eastern Conference “bottom seven” predictions for The Athletic and came away with some fairly surprising conclusions.

Perhaps the biggest? The Miami Heat, fresh off acquiring Giannis Antetokounmpo, are projected to finish ninth at 40-42. Right behind them are the Indiana Pacers at 39-43.

Yes, the Heat added Giannis. Yes, the Pacers are getting Tyrese Haliburton back. And according to Hollinger, neither development guarantees much of anything.

His argument is that the East has become considerably deeper, with fewer easy nights and more teams that believe they belong in the playoffs. In other words, somebody with a pretty good roster is going to be disappointed.

Miami’s Giannis gamble

The Heat didn’t trade for Antetokounmpo to win 40 games. They made the move because they believed pairing him with Bam Adebayo could provide the foundation for another run at the NBA Finals.

Hollinger isn’t convinced the rest of the roster is ready for that.

“I don’t think the rest of the roster beyond Giannis and Bam Adebayo is anywhere near good enough,” Hollinger wrote.

The concern isn’t necessarily the stars. It’s everything surrounding them.

Miami surrendered considerable young talent in acquiring Antetokounmpo, and Hollinger sees little remaining on the roster that could develop into another high-level starter. He also questions whether the Heat possess enough draft capital or appealing contracts to make another significant trade.

That’s a difficult position for a franchise that just made one of the biggest moves in its history.

Of course, there is another side to this. Antetokounmpo remains one of the NBA’s most dominant players, Adebayo is an established All-Star, and Erik Spoelstra has made a career out of getting more from his roster than many expected.

Miami also has Andrew Wiggins, Bobby Portis and others capable of contributing. A team with Giannis and Spoelstra probably deserves at least some benefit of the doubt.

Still, Hollinger sees this season as something of a transition year, with the Heat potentially positioned to make a more meaningful roster upgrade in 2027.

That would require patience, something that becomes harder to sell when you’ve already traded for a superstar.

Pacers face different problem

Indiana’s situation is almost the opposite. The Pacers have continuity, established players and a roster largely locked into place. What they don’t have is certainty about Haliburton following his torn Achilles.

Hollinger believes that uncertainty, combined with the increased competition in the East, could leave Indiana outside the top eight.

The Pacers made their own aggressive move by acquiring Ivica Zubac, giving them a legitimate starting center alongside Pascal Siakam and their established backcourt.

But Hollinger wonders whether the 2025 NBA Finals appearance represented a sustainable level of success or a remarkable playoff run that will be difficult to repeat.

There’s also the financial picture. Indiana’s top nine players are under contract through 2028, and the organization is approaching luxury-tax territory. Hollinger suggests another move could be coming if the Pacers spend the first half hovering around .500.

For a franchise that prefers stability and has generally avoided expensive mistakes, those decisions could become uncomfortable.

The good news is that Haliburton doesn’t have to carry the entire operation by himself. Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Siakam and Zubac give Indiana a legitimate veteran foundation.

But the Pacers need Haliburton to resemble the player who directed their high-powered offense before his injury. Anything less could make Hollinger’s prediction considerably more realistic.

Plenty of company in East

Hollinger isn’t particularly optimistic about several other Eastern Conference teams, either.

He projects the Charlotte Hornets to finish 11th at 38-44, followed by the Washington Wizards at 34-48 and Milwaukee Bucks at 30-52.

Charlotte is especially interesting after trading LaMelo Ball and Miles Bridges despite a 44-win season. The Hornets have assembled an impressive collection of draft assets, but Hollinger questions whether they have a true centerpiece.

Washington, meanwhile, has moved away from a traditional rebuild by adding Trae Young and Anthony Davis alongside No. 1 overall pick AJ Dybantsa. That should make the Wizards more competitive, though Hollinger still sees significant roster issues.

Milwaukee faces an entirely different reality after trading Antetokounmpo. The Bucks have some interesting young pieces, including Kel’el Ware, Kasparas Jakučionis and rookie Brayden Burries, but no obvious replacement for their former franchise player.

At the bottom, Hollinger predicts the Chicago Bulls will finish 27-55 and Brooklyn Nets 26-56.

There are reasons to disagree with some of these projections. The Heat could certainly finish much higher if Antetokounmpo stays healthy, and Indiana has already demonstrated what its core can accomplish when everything clicks.

But Hollinger’s larger point is worth considering. The East may finally be deep enough that having a couple of stars, a recognizable name or a recent playoff pedigree won’t be sufficient.

Somebody has to finish ninth and 10th. Hollinger believes it could be Miami and Indiana. Both franchises intend to prove otherwise.