Three trade proposals for Pistons’ Jalen Duren

Jalen Duren hasn’t signed a contract with the Pistons yet, so naturally we’re going to discuss trading him.

Hey, nobody ever accused the NBA of being normal.

First, the important part: None of the trades below are being reported as offers. These are Hoops Wire proposals built around teams that actually have been connected to Duren, and players who could conceivably be involved if Detroit ever decides to move its 22-year-old All-Star center.

That’s a significant distinction, because the Pistons have shown no indication that they want to trade Duren. Quite the opposite. Detroit has continued to reject sign-and-trade discussions, even with the Kings and Bucks known to have serious interest.

The Wizards also have shown interest in a deal involving Duren and Anthony Davis. Again, Detroit wasn’t interested.

So why do this? Because something clearly isn’t right between Duren and the Pistons. He’s missed the beginning of training camp and has until Thursday to choose between Detroit’s fully guaranteed five-year, $200 million offer and the one-year qualifying offer worth about $9.6 million.

If Duren signs the long-term contract, he wouldn’t immediately become trade-eligible. That date would come Jan. 15. That’s where our little experiment begins.

Kings

The framework: Jalen Duren and additional salary to Sacramento; Domantas Sabonis to Detroit

This is the most obvious place to start. The Kings have been seriously interested in Duren, while the Pistons reportedly have resisted the idea of discussing a deal involving Sabonis. You can understand both sides.

Sabonis is 30 and already one of the league’s most accomplished centers, a three-time All-Star and walking double-double who would immediately give Cade Cunningham another established offensive hub. He’s scheduled to make about $45.5 million this season.

Duren would give Sacramento something entirely different. Namely, a 22-year-old All-NBA center who could grow with whatever comes next.

The salary math would require more than a simple one-for-one swap if Duren signs Detroit’s reported $200 million contract. Depending on the final structure of his deal, Detroit could attach another contract to make the numbers work.

Would I do it if I’m Detroit? Probably not. Sabonis is really good. Duren could be really good for another decade.

But if the relationship between Duren and Detroit really is broken, Sabonis is the caliber of established player who at least gets me to answer the phone.

Amico verdict: Interesting, but Detroit would need a compelling reason to exchange Duren’s future for Sabonis’ present.

Bucks

The framework: Jalen Duren to Milwaukee; Myles Turner, another player and/or draft compensation to Detroit

Now we’re getting somewhere. Milwaukee is another team with serious reported interest in Duren, and Turner is the obvious centerpiece if the Bucks decide to make a run at him.

Turner is making about $26.6 million this season, so he wouldn’t be enough by himself to match the salary Duren would receive on Detroit’s five-year proposal. The Bucks have other contracts that could help construct something, including A.J. Green at roughly $10 million.

That gives us the bones of a deal involving Turner and Green for Duren, with draft compensation potentially entering the discussion depending on how Detroit values the players.

From Milwaukee’s perspective, the appeal isn’t difficult to understand. Duren is 22. Turner is 30. If you’re trying to build another contending core rather than continually patch the old one, Duren is precisely the type of player worth chasing.

Detroit would get a proven starting center who can protect the rim and stretch the floor, potentially opening things offensively for Cunningham and the rest of the Pistons.

Still, I’d want more if I’m Detroit. Turner is a good player. Duren just made the All-Star and All-NBA teams at 22. Those aren’t the same asset.

Amico verdict: Probably the easiest basketball fit of the three, but Milwaukee would have to make Detroit feel like it’s getting more than an older replacement center.

Wizards

The framework: Jalen Duren and John Collins to Washington; Anthony Davis to Detroit

OK, now we’re having fun. Unlike the other two, the basic idea here has already surfaced in actual reporting. Washington would have interest in a deal sending Davis to Detroit for Duren. The Pistons, at least so far, don’t. That doesn’t mean we can’t play with it.

Davis is making about $58.5 million this season. If Duren signs Detroit’s five-year, $200 million proposal, his first-year salary combined with Collins’ $17 million would get the Pistons considerably closer to workable matching territory once Duren becomes trade-eligible.

Forget the calculator for a second, though. Think about the basketball. Detroit won 60 games last season. Cunningham is entering his prime. If the Pistons decided they’re done waiting and wanted to make a serious run at the Eastern Conference, adding Anthony Davis would qualify as serious. Very serious.

Washington’s reasoning would be completely different. Davis is 33. Duren is 22. The Wizards could turn an aging superstar into an All-NBA center who theoretically could spend the next decade growing alongside AJ Dybantsa and the rest of their young core.

That’s why this is easily my favorite of the three ideas. There’s enormous risk for Detroit. Davis’ health history doesn’t need an introduction, and surrendering Duren only to watch him become a perennial All-Star in Washington would be painful.

But Cunningham and Davis? It doesn’t take a basketball scientist to understand the appeal.

Amico verdict: The biggest gamble and easily the most fascinating. If Detroit ever decides Duren has to go, this is the type of return that would make me think about it.

One giant catch

All of this depends on what Duren does next. A sign-and-trade right now is considerably more complicated because of the NBA’s base-year compensation rules. Duren’s new team would count his entire salary as incoming money, while Detroit could count only a portion of it as outgoing salary for matching purposes.

That’s one reason these seemingly simple Duren-for-Sabonis or Duren-for-Turner ideas aren’t actually simple at all. If Duren signs Detroit’s long-term offer, however, Jan. 15 becomes the date to watch for a potential trade.

If he takes the qualifying offer, there’s another complication: Duren would have veto power over any trade this season, and approving one would cost him his Bird rights with the team acquiring him.

Maybe none of this matters. Detroit keeps saying Duren is part of its future, and turning down a fully guaranteed $200 million contract would represent an enormous gamble for the young center. But we’re already well past the point where this qualifies as ordinary restricted free agency.

So if Thursday arrives and the two sides still aren’t happy with each other, don’t delete those trade machines just yet.