NBA Insider: Playoffs not in the cards for Warriors, Mavericks

The Western Conference has been the NBA’s stronger half for what seems like forever. But that may be changing, and a couple of familiar franchises could find themselves on the outside looking in.

Yes, that includes Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors. And Cooper Flagg and the Dallas Mavericks aren’t exactly getting a glowing forecast, either.

That’s the outlook from longtime NBA insider John Hollinger, who offered his Western Conference bottom-seven predictions for The Athletic and came away with some fairly discouraging conclusions for several fan bases.

Hollinger projects the Warriors to finish tied for ninth at 37-45, with Dallas 11th at 36-46. The Phoenix Suns, meanwhile, are also projected to go 37-45 despite another offseason of aggressive spending.

His larger point is that the West may no longer have the overwhelming depth that has defined the conference for much of the past 25 years.

Oklahoma City and San Antonio remain formidable at the top, but Hollinger believes the middle of the conference is considerably weaker than in previous seasons.

He wouldn’t be surprised if nine Western Conference teams finish with losing records. And some prominent names could be among them.

Warriors running out of time?

Golden State has spent much of the Curry era competing for championships. Hollinger isn’t convinced the Warriors will even manage a winning record this time.

Not because Curry is finished, necessarily. Far from it. But at 38, he can no longer be expected to carry an aging roster through an entire season.

The Warriors are also dealing with significant injuries to Jimmy Butler and Moses Moody, leaving roughly $70 million in salary tied up in players who won’t be contributing for much of the season.

Then there’s the rest of the roster. Kristaps Porzingis has an extensive injury history, Al Horford is nearing the end of his career, and Draymond Green is 36. Even the younger supporting pieces have their share of health concerns.

Hollinger does like rookie Yaxel Lendeborg, who gives Golden State some badly needed athleticism, along with Brandin Podziemski.

Still, the question is whether those players can provide enough support until the veterans are healthy.

Hollinger describes this season as something resembling a transition year, with the Warriors potentially better positioned to add significant help in 2027-28. That’s an unusual approach for a team whose franchise player is approaching 40.

Of course, there’s always the possibility Curry has another remarkable season in him. Nobody should completely dismiss Golden State while he’s around.

But asking him to overcome age, injuries and questionable depth is asking quite a bit.

Mavericks have Flagg, but plenty of questions

Dallas finds itself in a different situation. The Mavericks have a young cornerstone in Flagg, who already looks capable of becoming a perennial All-Star. They also have Kyrie Irving returning from a torn ACL.

That combination offers some legitimate hope. But Hollinger believes Dallas has assembled a roster with too many forwards and not enough dependable guards, leaving new coach Dusty May with a complicated puzzle.

Flagg should benefit from playing alongside Irving, particularly after spending his rookie season on a team that lacked reliable shooting and ballhandling.

The bigger question is whether Irving will remain in Dallas all season. At 34 and entering the final year of his contract, Irving could become an appealing trade candidate if the Mavericks decide their future is better served by acquiring younger talent and draft assets.

Hollinger sees enough talent to keep Dallas competitive in the Play-In race, but not enough to finish with a winning record.

And frankly, that wouldn’t be a disaster for a franchise now building around Flagg. The Mavericks have more reason to be optimistic about their long-term future than several other teams on this list.

Suns have bigger problems

Phoenix may be the most fascinating case of all. For starters, the Suns continue operating like championship contenders despite results that suggest otherwise.

Their latest major gamble involved acquiring Miles Bridges and surrendering another unprotected future first-round pick.

Hollinger was particularly critical of the decision, questioning why a team with limited championship upside continues sacrificing its future.

Devin Booker remains a standout player, and Phoenix has useful contributors in Dillon Brooks, Collin Gillespie and Jordan Goodwin.

But Hollinger sees a franchise that has committed enormous money and draft assets without assembling a roster capable of seriously challenging the league’s elite.

He projects the Suns to finish tied with Golden State at 37-45. And his concerns extend well beyond this season, with Phoenix facing potentially severe roster-building limitations later in the decade.

Not much optimism elsewhere

Hollinger projects the New Orleans Pelicans to finish 12th at 32-50, followed by the Memphis Grizzlies at 31-51 and Los Angeles Clippers at 30-52.

New Orleans has intriguing talent, including Zion Williamson, Trey Murphy III and Dejounte Murray. But Williamson’s health and the team’s lack of dependable size remain significant concerns.

Memphis, meanwhile, has embraced a rebuild following the departures of Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. Hollinger sees promising young pieces, particularly Cameron Boozer and Zach Edey, but expects another difficult season.

The Clippers may have the toughest situation outside Sacramento. With Kawhi Leonard gone and the franchise facing severe draft-pick limitations, Hollinger questions how Los Angeles can rebuild around Darius Garland, Brandon Ingram and its remaining veterans.

He does see Garland as a legitimate long-term building block, although the Clippers appear to have plenty of work ahead.

Finally, there’s Sacramento. Hollinger projects the Kings to finish last in the West at 23-59, citing an expensive roster, limited young talent and years of questionable organizational decisions.

There are some reasons for optimism, including Keegan Murray and rookie Darius Acuff Jr., but Hollinger clearly isn’t expecting much.

The bigger picture is an interesting one. The Western Conference still has championship-caliber teams, but the gap between the best and everyone else may be growing.

For the Warriors, that raises questions about how much Curry has left and whether Golden State can make another meaningful run.

For the Mavericks, it’s about developing Flagg without wasting the opportunity to compete.

And for the Suns, Clippers and Kings, the questions may be even more uncomfortable.

Hollinger’s predictions won’t please everyone. But if he’s right, several familiar Western Conference franchises are headed for a long season.

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