NBA Notes: Nuggets, Nikola Jokic, Mavs, Anthony Davis, Clippers

Nuggets

The Nuggets may not be at full strength, as evidenced by their mixed performance with their opening night starting lineup, noted Kevin Pelton of ESPN.

The team is 11-9 this season when that group starts, but they improve to 30-12 in the other 42 games in which three-time MVP Nikola Jokic plays, but another starter is absent.

The shooting splits between these two scenarios hint at the role of chance. The Nuggets have converted 36% of their three-point attempts in games with their full opening night lineup, compared to 39.5% in the games Jokic has played without a missing starter.

The absence of key players often means more minutes for Russell Westbrook, who has struggled with his three-point shooting, posting a 34% rate. While the numbers suggest randomness, Westbrook has been notably more effective as a starter, posting a strong .603 true shooting percentage in those games compared to just .480 when coming off the bench, when his minutes with Jokic are fewer.

Against top-10 defenses, however, Westbrook’s shooting struggles are magnified. He has posted a game score of just 11.6 per 36 minutes versus 15.8 against other teams, and his three-point attempts increase when facing elite defenses (5.7 per 36 minutes) compared to 4.3 against the rest of the league, including 17 total attempts in two losses to the Celtics.

• Despite these fluctuations, the Nuggets are well-positioned to finish second in the Western Conference, with a combination of strong regular-season performance and valuable playoff experience. They remain a prime contender, with only Oklahoma City likely to rival them for a spot in the conference finals.

Mavericks

The Mavericks have dropped seven of their last eight games and are clinging to the 10th and final spot in the play-in tournament, just 1½ games ahead of the Suns. Phoenix clinched the season series and the head-to-head tiebreaker with a March 7 victory in Dallas.

While the Mavericks may regain some much-needed depth as their two-way players approach the end of their game eligibility, the most significant return could be that of Anthony Davis. Marc Stein of The Stein Line reported Monday that Davis will join the G League’s Texas Legends for practice as he recovers from an adductor strain sustained during his Dallas debut.

• Basically, without Kyrie Irving, the Mavericks are no longer the formidable play-in contender they once seemed, but a healthy Davis could at least give them a fighting chance.

Clippers

As for the Clippers and their playoff hopes … well, it’s still hard to predict entering Tuesday’s biggie against the Cavaliers.

Once within striking distance of home-court advantage in the first round, the Clippers have posted a 9-10 record since February, despite Kawhi Leonard being available for 13 of those 18 games.

Leonard, still recovering from knee surgery, has not played at an All-Star level, registering a career-low .545 true shooting percentage while maintaining his highest usage rate (28%) since the 2020-21 season, Pelton noted.

• Making the playoffs would surpass the Clippers’ modest expectations, and they are in a solid position to advance as the likely No. 8 seed in the play-in tournament after securing a crucial overtime win over the Kings on March 9.
• That victory clinched the head-to-head tiebreaker with Sacramento. However, climbing higher than the eighth seed appears unlikely, as the Clippers are projected to make the play-in in nearly 90% of Basketball Power Index simulations.