NBA teams that play slower trending up, report shows

Every year, it’s the same message across the NBA: Teams want to play faster.

As Zach Kram of ESPN details, that idea has been everywhere this season, from the Knicks to the Heat to the Trail Blazers. The logic is simple. More pace should mean better offense.

Except it hasn’t worked out that way.

In fact, the numbers show the opposite. None of the NBA’s 10 fastest teams rank in the top 10 in offensive efficiency. Several of the league’s worst offenses, including the Bulls and Wizards, play at a high tempo. Meanwhile, many of the best offenses, such as the Celtics, Nuggets and Knicks, operate at a slower pace.

On average, the 10 slowest teams have outscored the 10 fastest by 3.1 points per 100 possessions. That is the largest gap of its kind in nearly three decades of data.

So what is going on?

One explanation, as Kram outlines, ties into the idea of Goodhart’s Law. In short, when teams chase quick shots simply because analytics say they are valuable, the quality of those shots can drop. As Bulls coach Billy Donovan noted, an early shot is not automatically a good one if it is rushed or contested.

There are tradeoffs, too. Faster teams often struggle in other areas, including turnovers, offensive rebounding and free throws. Chicago, for example, generates strong shot quality but ranks near the bottom of the league in those other key categories.

Talent also plays a role. Many fast-paced teams simply do not have elite offensive stars. Slower teams often do, and they lean into it. For instance, per Clippers coach Tyronn Lue, when you have high-level players, you slow things down and run offense through them.

That tracks. A large share of the league’s All-Stars come from slower-paced teams, including names like Nikola Jokic, LeBron James and Jalen Brunson.

There is also a playoff angle here, and it is a big one.

Historically, the game slows down in the postseason. This year, with many contenders already playing at a deliberate pace, we could be headed for an even more half-court, grind-it-out style than usual.

That could favor teams built around execution and defense, including top seeds like the Thunder and Pistons.

And yet, the irony remains. Even the slowest teams still say they want to play faster.

Maybe that is just the NBA. Everyone wants pace. Not everyone actually benefits from it.