When It Comes to Cavs-Knicks, There’s No Easy Pick

It’s hard to know what to make of the Cavaliers’ first-round series vs. the Knicks.

Let’s just start here — I think the Cavs will win. I think. But I’m not sure.

The Cavs are better than the Knicks, though not by much. A No. 4 vs. No. 5 seed is almost always a tough decision.

If we go out West, the 4-5 matchup is the Suns vs. the Clippers. That series would be a little easier, given the Suns’ addition of Kevin Durant. He’s an experienced winner. Plus, the Clippers will be without the injured Paul George.

In the East, the Durant of the 4-5 series is the Cavs’ Donovan Mitchell. He will be the best player on the floor. In the NBA, the team with the best player usually wins. Not always, but usually.

But that’s different in Cleveland. The rest of the core consists of Darius Garland, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. Garland and Mobley have never been in a playoff series. Same goes for Isaac Okoro. Allen and Caris LeVert have played in one apiece.

It’s hard to know who coach J.B. Bickerstaff will utilize off the bench, but if two of those players are Dean Wade and Lamar Stevens … you guessed it. No playoffs for them, either. Cedi Osman‘s postseason experience is also extremely limited, as he played just 56 minutes in the Cavs’ playoff run of 2017-18.

Along with all that, it’s hard to know what the Cavs might get from veteran guards Danny Green and Ricky Rubio. Neither has been impactful (yet).

Oh, and Bickerstaff has been the head coach for just one series — back in 2016, with the Rockets, when he served as interim man.

That said, it’s not like the Knicks have a bunch of guys who have won titles. Power forward Julius Randle and point guard Jalen Brunson are their main men. They’re both very good. Neither has proven much in the playoffs (though Brunson was a key part of a Mavericks team that reached the West finals last season).

Anyway, you can probably tell, I’m confused.

That can be the case when you have no idea what to expect entering a seven-game series. And I truly have no idea what to expect. Will Mobley continue the rise he showed in the season’s second half? Will Garland be himself at the most critical time of year? Will Mitchell have consistent help? Will the bench turn out to be a problem? And when will Okoro (knee) even play?

Granted, Randle is also entering the series as “day-to-day” with an ankle sprain. I suspect he plays in Game 1. I suspect it will turn out that he’s just fine.

It shouldn’t matter if the Cavs play like they have all season, especially defensively. The fact they were near the top as a defensive unit for the entire regular season bodes well for the playoffs — when games tend to be more intense and much more of a grind-it-out affair. Having Allen and Mobley protecting the basket should indeed make a big difference.

It also helps that the Cavs own home-court advantage. That will count for a lot if the series goes to a Game 7. And it just might.

Perhaps I’m overthinking things and I should just be confident in picking the Cavs. Of the 17 ESPN writers who chose a winner in the series, only four picked New York. Sounds like it should be an easy decision.

But I don’t expect this to be a gimme. I do think the Cavs could win in six, maybe even five. I think the Knicks could win in six, too. We will know a lot more after they finally play one game.

Basically, when anyone asks, I just say I think the Cavs will win. And I do think that.

So I’m gonna go with Cavs in seven. These two teams are evenly matched, well-coached and capable of winning on the other’s court. With all that in mind, if we’re being honest, anything can happen.