NBA Lottery Will Decide More Than Just Who Gets Cooper Flagg, Thanks To Pick Protections

The ping-pong balls will bounce Monday night, but make no mistake — this year’s NBA draft lottery carries a different kind of weight.

Unlike 2024’s lottery, where the top pick was still up for debate even as the envelopes were being opened, this time there’s no mystery. Duke phenom Cooper Flagg is widely expected to be the No. 1 overall selection, a prospect so hyped that one lottery team executive told Sports Illustrated’s Chris Mannix, “If we don’t get him, I just hope he winds up in the (other) conference.”

The 30-minute lottery broadcast airs on ESPN at 7 p.m. ET, prior to Game 4 of the Eastern Conference semifinal between the New York Knicks and Boston Celtics. For some teams, though, this will be the biggest contest of the night.

The Jazz, Wizards and Hornets each hold a 14.0% chance of landing the top pick, tied for the best odds under the NBA’s revised lottery system. The Pelicans (12.5%), 76ers (10.5%), Nets (9.0%), Raptors (7.5%), and Spurs (6.7% across two picks) round out the group of contenders.

The new format, introduced in 2019 to deter intentional losing, flattened the odds — but it didn’t flatten the stakes. With Flagg looming as a potential franchise-altering talent, even a slim chance feels like a golden ticket.

Trades Add Intrigue

Monday’s lottery also comes with a series of layered draft pick protections and transactions that could dramatically impact the fates of multiple franchises, and not just the ones hoping to draft Flagg.

Philadelphia 76ers: The Sixers owe their 2025 first-round pick to the Thunder unless it lands in the top six, and there’s a 63.9% chance it will. If it doesn’t, the pick conveys to Oklahoma City. If it does, Philadelphia will instead send a top-four protected 2026 pick to OKC. In other words, Flagg or no Flagg, this lottery matters a lot to both teams.

Houston Rockets: Houston owns the Suns’ unprotected first-round pick — a rare asset in today’s NBA — which has a 17.3% chance of jumping into the top four. More likely, the pick lands at No. 9 (50.7%) or No. 10 (28.3%), giving the Rockets yet another young piece in their rebuild.

Sacramento Kings: The Kings owe a pick to Atlanta if it falls outside the top 12 — which it almost certainly will. There’s a 92.9% chance that pick lands at No. 13, giving the Hawks a likely mid-first-round selection. Sacramento retains the pick only if it jumps into the top four, which has just a 3.8% chance.

San Antonio Spurs: The Spurs are one of just two teams with multiple chances to move up. In addition to their own pick, they also hold Atlanta’s — which projects to be No. 14 but has a 3.4% chance of leaping into the top four.

A New Era, Or a Familiar Twist?

Since the NBA tweaked its lottery formula, the dream of long-shot teams vaulting to No. 1 has become more tangible. Before the change, the league’s three worst teams had a 60.5% chance of winning the lottery. Now? Just 42.0%. Meanwhile, teams in the 5–14 range have seen their combined odds jump from 27.6% to 45.5%.

Still, the wild swings many expected under the new format have been rare. From 2020 through 2023, each lottery was won by a team already sitting in the top three of the standings.

That changed in 2024, when the Hawks moved up from No. 10 to grab the top spot, which they used to select Zaccharie Risacher.

Could we see another seismic shift Monday? We’ll know by the time the last card is flipped.